The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has released its latest report on cold weather-related mortality, detailing the estimated number of deaths attributable to cold conditions in England during the winter of 2025 to 2026.
Cold Weather Death Estimates
According to the findings, approximately 2,200 deaths were linked to cold weather across five distinct cold weather episodes. This figure represents a decrease from the estimated 2,788 cold-associated fatalities recorded during three cold weather episodes in the previous winter of 2024 to 2025. The most severe episode occurred over a nine-day stretch in early January, correlating with an estimated 1,563 cold-related deaths.
Other notable observations from the report indicate that cold-associated fatalities were logged in all regions of England except the North East. The North West reported the highest mortality rate, with 52 cold-related deaths per million of the population, followed closely by the East Midlands and Yorkshire and The Humber. Circulatory diseases emerged as the leading cause of cold-related deaths, accounting for an estimated 757 fatalities linked to these conditions.
Temperature Impact on Mortality Rates
The report also highlights that deaths resulting from circulatory conditions, cancer, accidents, injuries, and other causes tended to increase as temperatures dropped, with the strongest correlation observed for circulatory diseases. Interestingly, influenza and pneumonia displayed a more complex interaction; their associated mortality risk heightened during both extreme cold spells and milder periods, suggesting intricate dynamics between cold weather and seasonal infections. Similarly, dementia, Alzheimer’s disease, and chronic lower respiratory diseases exhibited patterns akin to those of influenza and pneumonia, albeit with less pronounced fluctuations.
It is noteworthy that regional disparities in cold-associated mortality do not necessarily align with variations in winter temperatures. For instance, despite colder conditions in the North East, no cold-related deaths were reported there during the monitoring period, while the North West experienced the highest mortality rate.
Factors Influencing Regional Differences
These regional differences may stem from various factors, including the quality of housing, heating availability, population health, and the local populace’s adaptability to cold conditions. Nevertheless, further investigation is warranted to gain a more thorough understanding of these discrepancies.
To assess the health ramifications of cold weather, the UKHSA conducts analyses of daily death registrations in conjunction with temperature data from the Met Office. Statistical modelling is employed to ascertain how mortality risk fluctuates as temperatures decline and how these effects might accumulate over successive days. This methodology allows the UKHSA to estimate fatalities linked to specific cold weather periods rather than solely relying on death certificates, which do not list ‘cold’ as a cause of death.
Comprehensive Health Surveillance
These mortality estimates contribute to a broader winter health surveillance framework, which also monitors influenza, COVID-19, RSV, norovirus, and other seasonal health pressures. Collectively, these data inform Cold-Weather Alerts and winter preparedness strategies, ensuring they are grounded in evidence regarding real-world health impacts.
The episode-based approach of UKHSA complements the longer-term analyses conducted by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), which explore the average effects of cold weather over several decades. Although the two methodologies are not directly comparable, they collectively enhance the understanding of how cold weather influences health in England.
Public Health Recommendations
Dr Agostinho Sousa, Head of Extreme Events and Health Protection at UKHSA, emphasised the health risks posed by cold weather, particularly for vulnerable groups such as the elderly, individuals with pre-existing health conditions, and those living in inadequate housing. He remarked, “Our cold weather mortality report shows that around 2,200 people died as a result of very low temperatures last winter. While this estimate is lower than the previous year, it underscores that even brief periods of cold can have significant health repercussions, leading to an increase in deaths in the days and weeks that follow.”
As winter approaches, it is crucial for individuals to take straightforward measures to safeguard their health and that of others. This includes ensuring adequate warmth in homes, checking on vulnerable friends, family, and neighbours, and heeding weather forecasts and public health guidance during colder spells.
Vulnerable Population Groups
Populations particularly at risk from cold weather include:
- Individuals aged 65 and over
- Those with cardiovascular or respiratory conditions
- People suffering from dementia
- Residents of poorly insulated homes or those experiencing fuel poverty
The complete Cold mortality monitoring report has been published. It is important to note that the findings from this report should not be directly compared to UKHSA’s heat mortality reports, as the methodologies employed to assess the health impacts of cold and hot weather differ. Together, these reports contribute to the evidence base supporting the Adverse Weather and Health Plan for England.
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