Government Roundtable Delves into Climate Change Scenarios for a Sustainable Future

Specialists in climate and risk from the Government Actuary’s Department (GAD) collaborated with the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) to organise a roundtable discussion on climate scenarios, which took place during London Climate Action Week. This gathering brought together representatives from eight government organisations to share insights, identify shared challenges, and examine how climate scenarios can enhance policymaking and long-term strategic decisions across the government.

Enhancing Resilience through Scenario Analysis

Government departments are increasingly acknowledging that climate risks have far-reaching implications for economic performance, infrastructure, public services, and national security. Many departments currently employ scenario-based tools for horizon scanning and strategic risk planning. The discussions at the event focused on how these methodologies could be applied more consistently to guide policy and investment choices.

The event commenced with a presentation outlining how actuaries utilise scenarios rather than forecasts. This approach allows them to evaluate decisions against severe yet plausible future conditions instead of relying solely on a singular central prediction. Additionally, the IFoA provided insights from its contribution to HM Treasury’s Green Book Discount Rate review, examining how long-term and highly uncertain decisions should be appraised differently compared to routine investments.

Collaborative Experience Sharing

Participants engaged in facilitated discussions that drew on diverse departmental perspectives. They considered several key points, including where climate uncertainty is effectively addressed and where it tends to be overlooked, the obstacles hindering the broader use of climate scenarios across government, and what measures could enhance the utilisation of these scenarios to bolster effective decision-making.

GAD presented a practical case study derived from its collaboration with the Ministry of Justice, focusing on the risks of overheating within the prison estate. This analysis examined the potential impacts of rising temperatures on prison facilities and demonstrated how scenario analysis can assist organisations in evaluating long-term risks, testing potential interventions, and supporting informed decision-making amidst uncertainty.

Fostering Collaborative Governance in Climate Scenarios

The roundtable offered a structured platform for organisations to compare methodologies, share practical experiences, and pinpoint common challenges they face. The discussions underscored a collective interest in enhancing the application of climate scenarios across government. Participants expressed a need for improved governance, better analytical tools, and greater collaboration among organisations.

As Matt Gurden, Deputy Government Actuary at the GAD, remarked, “The roundtable coincided with a period of extreme heat, prompting a transition to a hybrid format following a Met Office red heat alert. This served as a timely reminder that climate risks are already influencing our daily lives and work environments.” He further noted, “It was encouraging to witness various organisations from across government sharing their experiences and exploring how scenario analysis can facilitate more resilient decision-making.”