The global landscape has become increasingly perilous, impacting families throughout the United Kingdom. The resurgence of warfare in Europe has led to soaring energy costs, while a blockade of a critical strait thousands of miles away has driven up petrol prices. British businesses face immediate threats from cyber-attacks originating from distant shores, and criminal smuggling networks are profiting immensely from breaches in our borders.
A confluence of geopolitical instability, economic coercion, technological evolution, and environmental degradation has created what can only be described as a perfect storm. After grappling with these multifaceted threats on the international stage over the past year, it is evident that the pace at which these challenges are intensifying demands our urgent attention.
Shared Struggles in a Turbulent World
The United Kingdom is not alone in confronting these issues. Nations worldwide are being battered by unforeseen events, often feeling powerless in their response. This frustration is eroding the very fabric of democratic societies.
In the UK, a series of foreign policy missteps spanning several years has left us more vulnerable than necessary. As the world evolved around us, our ability to adapt faltered, leaving us unwilling to engage in the difficult but essential public discussions required to navigate these challenges.
Since 2024, the Labour government has made significant strides to rectify this legacy. However, initiating change is merely the first step; maintaining momentum will be crucial as we face the most formidable challenges yet.
Nevertheless, Britain possesses untapped potential. Our nation is extraordinary, endowed with capabilities that few can rival and values that continue to inspire others. In this time of upheaval, we must harness our sovereign strengths, translating our principles into actions that foster proactive alliances. Our mission is not merely to endure the storm but to actively steer our course, shaping the world rather than succumbing to it. This approach will enhance our safety, bolster our strength, and create greater prosperity at home.
Witnessing Instability First-Hand
Recently in eastern Poland, I observed military officers constructing extensive trenches along NATO’s eastern border—an indication of their resolve to defend against potential Russian incursions. Earlier this year, I met with Sudanese women on the Chad border, survivors of an ongoing conflict that the international community has failed to resolve. In the Gulf region, businesses are grappling with the challenges posed by the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz. Throughout discussions with our closest allies, the focus remains firmly on collective security and the instability that threatens us all.
By 2025, the world was experiencing the highest number of armed conflicts since 1945, displacing nearly 120 million individuals. The nature of danger has evolved; threats now manifest not only on battlefields but also through cyber and hybrid tactics that reach us in unpredictable ways.
Concurrently, the economic landscape is undergoing a transformation. The rise of nations such as China and India is shifting the global economic centre of gravity, while technology firms now wield influence surpassing that of many mid-sized nations. Major economies are retreating from global trade norms, with protectionist measures on the rise. Openness is being weaponised through tariffs and restrictions on critical minerals, alongside the exploitation of energy resources.
The ramifications of these developments are being felt directly in the UK, manifesting as higher food prices, job losses, the proliferation of misinformation, and illegal migration that undermines public trust.
The Storm is Far From Over
We should not deceive ourselves into believing that the current situation is the zenith of the storm. Climate change-induced disasters are escalating humanitarian crises, thereby intensifying pressures on food, energy, and migration. Furthermore, the rapid advancement of technology presents both remarkable opportunities and new threats.
During my recent visit to Shenzhen, China, I witnessed the remarkable potential of AI and robotics in delivering life-saving healthcare. Yet, these same technologies are also redefining the future of warfare, crime, and societal cohesion in troubling ways.
The geopolitical landscape is also shifting. The United States is retreating from its traditional role as the guarantor of global security. While Europe, including the UK, has begun to assume greater responsibility, we must be prepared to shoulder more of the burden ourselves. Simultaneously, China—our fourth-largest trading partner—poses significant threats to our cyber security. The era of great power politics has returned, and the rules-based international order and the alliances that Britain significantly contributed to are now under siege.
Whether one refers to this epoch as the end of the old world order or simply the age of instability, it often feels as though we are at the mercy of forces beyond our control. This sense of powerlessness erodes the resilience of democracies; when citizens perceive that traditional politics is failing to solve their problems, they may gravitate towards more extreme and aggressive alternatives.
Opportunities Amidst Instability
In the midst of danger, however, this instability also presents remarkable opportunities. Emerging technologies, new markets, and innovative partnerships align seamlessly with Britain’s character and capabilities. Strong economic growth in many developing nations has lifted billions out of poverty, creating fresh avenues for British trade and investment. Breakthroughs in AI, quantum computing, and robotics are generating extraordinary possibilities for British researchers. The fluid dynamics of geopolitics and geoeconomics offer fertile ground for the creative diplomacy in which we excel.
Thus, the UK faces important decisions. We need not remain passive while our security, prosperity, and democratic structures are eroded. Yet safeguarding them necessitates a clear and pragmatic strategy to bolster Britain’s strength and uphold our values as we prepare for the challenges ahead.
Harnessing Britain’s Strengths
In theory, Britain is well-positioned to respond to a rapidly evolving world. As a prominent military and nuclear power in Europe, a permanent member of the UN Security Council, and a nation with global intelligence and diplomatic capabilities, we are a G7 country at the heart of the Five Eyes partnership and the Commonwealth. We are a global financial hub attracting investment from all corners of the globe, boasting world-class universities and exemplary research institutions. Furthermore, with our King as a globally respected figure, our standing is formidable.
We are among the most interconnected and influential nations on the planet, with relationships and stature that few can rival. However, we must not underestimate the significance of our values in establishing trust and strength abroad, including our commitment to fairness, multilateralism, humanitarianism, and the rule of law.
History illustrates the profound impact Britain has made when it applies these values—contributing to NATO, the Marshall Plan, the European Convention on Human Rights, the Geneva Conventions, the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and the ban on landmines and cluster munitions. Over the past year, from combating Ebola to responding to Hurricane Melissa, we have acted upon our principles, not only for our benefit but because it is the morally right course of action.
Reflecting on Past Missteps
However, we must candidly acknowledge that in recent decades, we have taken Britain’s strengths for granted and failed to comprehend the rapid evolution of the global landscape. Complacency has relegated us from a position of influence in shaping global norms to one of watching from the sidelines.
Initially, we assumed the post-Cold War peace dividend would last indefinitely. In 2010, the defence budget faced an 8 per cent reduction in real terms. Following Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, the warnings went unheeded for nearly a decade, delaying the necessary increases in defence spending. Consequently, when Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, years of underinvestment rendered us significantly less prepared than required.
Secondly, our management of globalisation has been flawed. While economic integration has historically fostered growth and improved living standards, the benefits have not been evenly distributed within the UK, leaving some communities severely disadvantaged.
Simultaneously, we have become increasingly dependent on a limited number of countries for energy, components, and critical technologies, neglecting the resilience of these supply chains. The repercussions are now evident, as the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine have driven food and energy prices to unprecedented levels, while China has tightened its grip on the vital minerals essential to our economy.
Thirdly, we have grown complacent regarding our international relationships, mistakenly believing that Britain’s influence was a permanent fixture rather than a continual effort requiring diligent diplomacy. This confidence endured until our departure from the EU, which strained our relationships and tarnished our reputation for serious engagement.
Finally, successive governments have failed to communicate transparently with the public about global challenges or to foster support for challenging foreign policy decisions. In the realm of defence, we have not yet engaged the public in the manner our Scandinavian and Eastern European counterparts have regarding the necessary choices to confront escalating threats.
As a result, the UK has become more vulnerable—less prepared to seize new opportunities and less resilient in facing emerging threats.
Recent Developments and Future Directions
Since assuming office in July 2024, we have initiated a turnaround. We have increased defence spending at the fastest rate since the Cold War and forged significant new trade agreements with India, the Gulf nations, Europe, and the United States. Keir Starmer has revitalised our European relationships, united a Coalition of the Willing to
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